iPAT Analysis of India’s Carbon Emissions and Energy Transition

During the industrialization expansion of various countries, both emission allowances and clean air became increasingly scarce resources. Thomas Malthus (1798) profoundly revealed the tension between population and natural resources, highlighting the potential environmental consequences of unchecked population growth (Freedman, 2014). However, during the subsequent Victorian era, wealth and technology became increasingly unevenly distributed worldwide, making a sole focus on population insufficient, a limitation later addressed by models such as the iPAT equation (Steinbach, 2025):

I = P\times A\times T

Environmental impact (I) depends on population (P), affluence (A, per-capita consumption), and technology (T, the environmental effect of production) (Moltesen & Bjorn, 2018). These factors play a crucial role in a country’s modernization process. As a potential superpower with rapidly growing population, affluence, and technological capacity, India provides an ideal setting for iPAT-based analysis.

Context

Emission Profile

India’s carbon emissions exert considerable influence on the global climate system. In 2024, its annual CO₂ emissions reached ≈3.19 Gt, exceeding the entire European Union and over twice those of the whole African continent (Our World in Data, 2025). Moreover, the rise in India’s CO₂ emissions, which has been increasing at about 165–190 Mt in recent years, is comparable to the annual emissions of Argentina (Our World in Data, 2025). Taken together, India’s emissions profile signals escalating pressure on the global carbon budget. This trajectory underscores India’s growing relevance to global warming and climate change.

India’s energy structure remains strongly reliant on polluting fuels, which not only emit greenhouse gases (GHG) but also release a range of toxic pollutants into the atmosphere. More than 90% of India’s current energy consumption is supplied by coal, oil, and solid biomass (International Energy Agency, 2025a). Compared with global averages, the share of coal (≈46.4%) and solid biomass (≈19.5%) is significantly higher, as these sources are locally accessible and require minimal infrastructure (International Energy Agency, 2025b). Moreover, with ongoing industrialization, the proportion of oil in the energy mix is expected to increase further (International Energy Agency, 2025b). These points suggest that fossil fuels will remain the dominant source in India for the foreseeable future. Unlike carbon emissions, pollution from high-emission fuels directly affects the living environment.

Policy Gaps

Both global and domestic responses remain insufficient to address these environmental pressures. Recent projections suggest that global warming is expected to reach 2.2–3.5 °C by 2100, far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C goal (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2023). Meanwhile, India’s National Clean Air Programme has been postponed, with only 41 of 97 cities achieving the targeted 20–30% PM10 reduction, while 29 cities saw increases (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, 2025). These ambitious environmental commitments are often difficult to fully implement in practice. Thus, global responses, including those of India, remain insufficient, and as a developing country, India is especially vulnerable to these impacts.

Analysis

Impact

GHG emissions are already adversely affecting agriculture in rural India. Over the past decade, the country’s average temperature has increased by ≈0.31 °C, and the Himalayan glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate (India Meteorological Department, 2025). In addition, due to the warmer climate and shifting rainfall, natural disasters have occurred four times more often since 1973 (IPE Global & Esri India, 2024). A report predicts that, by mid-century, climate change could reduce agricultural productivity in India by 10–20% (Singh & Singh, 2024). Overall, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent across India. As a result, the stability of India’s food supply and the livelihoods of farmers are unavoidably compromised.

Outside rural areas, urban populations face similarly severe risks from deteriorating air quality. Of the twenty most polluted cities in the world, thirteen are located in India, including the capital, Delhi. In Delhi, concentrations of many air pollutants exceed the World Health Organization’s guidelines by more than tenfold, making outdoor activity hazardous (Centre for Science and Environment, 2024; IQAir, 2024). In 2021, air pollution in India caused an estimated 1.6–2.1 million premature deaths nationwide, with children, particularly those from low-income families, have suffered the most (Romanello et al., 2024). Collectively, the outdated energy structure undermines the health of urban residents. Compared with reducing carbon emissions, addressing urban air pollution is an even more urgent priority.

Population

India’s demographic growth and urbanization are key factors shaping the country’s future carbon emissions and energy demand. According to the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024), India’s population hit ≈1.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to plateau at ≈1.7 billion in the early 2060s. Meanwhile, ≈37.1% of India’s population, ≈0.54 billion people, lived in urban areas, and remarkably, this number is projected to increase by an astonishing ≈50% over the next 25 years (Worldometer, 2025). In comparison, urban households have an average annual per-capita carbon footprint of ≈2.33 tCO₂e, over four times higher than rural households at ≈0.56 tCO₂e [bera2022]. These trends indicate that India’s exponential growing urban population, within the context of its already massive total population, will place increasing burdens on the country’s energy systems. This not only amplifies carbon emissions but also poses greater challenges for urban air quality management.

Affluence

In tropical countries like India, household ownership and use of energy-intensive air conditioners (AC) serve as key indicators of wealth and living standards. As Lee Kuan Yew (2009) recommends, “Air conditioning was a most important invention for us, perhaps one of the signal inventions of history. It changed the nature of civilization by making development possible in the tropics” (Muruganathan, 2024). Currently, only ≈7% of Indian households own a room AC, yet in 2024 the country purchased ≈14 million units, suggesting that AC ownership is poised to surge in the coming years (Business Standard, 2025). Moreover, demand for refrigeration and cold-chain cooling is rising sharply and is projected to be roughly eight times higher by 2037–38 compared with 2017–18 (Bureau of Energy Efficiency, 2024). These trends highlight how increasing wealth is driving rapid growth in power-demanding cooling, particularly in densely populated cities with poor heat-dissipation conditions. In general, affluence in India remains far from saturating its energy demand.

Technology

Electric and non-fossil energy technologies have already made a highly constructive contribution to India’s energy transition. Thanks to the adoption of international renewable energy, nuclear energy, energy storage, and smart grid cooperation, as well as the sustained efforts of Indian scientists, the power sector has made the most notable progress toward sustainability among major industries in India (Economic Times, 2025). According to recent reports, India’s low-carbon energy sources now make up ≈49% of the country’s installed power capacity and continue to expand (Economic Times, 2025). Due to factors including the gradual expansion of non-fossil, India’s coal imports fell in FY2024–25, saving about US$6.93 billion and improving energy security (Ministry of Coal, Government of India, 2025). Overall, the ongoing energy reforms in India’s power sector are proceeding effectively. Hence, facilitating the spillover of reforms from the power sector to other industries is vital for India to address the growth of population and affluence.

Conclusion

India’s carbon emissions and energy transition have substantial short-term effects, particularly urban air pollution, while climate-driven declines in rural crop yields highlight deeper and long-term vulnerabilities for the global community. Although the challenges currently observed represent only the tip of the iceberg, existing human responses remain far from sufficient, and their severity and scope are expected to increase over time. Based on iPAT analysis and India’s development objectives, technological advancement in power industry should be intensified to meet the rising population and affluence.

Recommendations

Electrification of energy use represents a fundamental strategy to curb urban sources of air pollution, and India can draw lessons from China’s recent initiatives. First, substituting internal-combustion buses, taxis, and private cars with electric vehicles, supported by widespread charging infrastructure, has been shown to reduce ambient PM2.5 and NO₂ concentrations by 30–70% and 30–80% respectively in many Chinese cities (Wang et al., 2021). Second, replacing household solid-fuel cooking with electric stoves in China has reduced total air pollutant exposure by nearly 50% and avoided ≈0.51 million premature deaths per year (Zhao et al., 2018). For instance, since China’s large-scale air-pollution control campaign began in 2013, Beijing’s heavy-pollution days have fallen from 58 to around 2, a reduction of ≈97% (Xinhua, 2025). These successes indicate that electrifying transport and residential energy, combined with complementary measures, can durably improve urban air quality. Electrification not only centralizes pollutant emissions for easier regulation but also lays the foundation for broader non-fossil energy deployment.

Non-fossil energy, especially renewable energy, represents the indispensable pathway to achieving deep carbon emission reductions. Over the past decade, steep cost declines have made solar (2.8 ₹/kWh) and onshore wind (3.6 ₹/kWh) in India cheaper than coal (4.8 ₹/kWh) and nuclear (5.6–6.0 ₹/kWh) in 2021, excluding storage and grid-stability costs (PRS Legislative Research, 2024). Currently, the levelized costs of pumped hydro storage (4.5–5.5 ₹/kWh) and battery storage (6.7–7.1 ₹/kWh) remain higher than those of coal, but by 2030 they are projected to approach parity, necessitating ongoing investment in civil and electrical infrastructure (PRS Legislative Research, 2024). According to the triple bottom line model, renewable energy in India has provided competitive benefits for society, the environment, and the economy, thereby achieving sustainable development (Vanasupa et al., 2010). In conclusion, the application of renewable energy increasingly depends on the availability of energy storage systems and grid integration. While the outlook is highly optimistic, it is essential for the government to maintain close oversight to guarantee the orderly expansion of renewable energy.

References